Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.392598 2.540025 2.701054 2.891885 3.114480 3.369421 3.688959
2025-04-27 2.295822 2.503200 2.744138 3.051554 3.444608 3.948842 4.682179
2025-05-04 2.158671 2.382857 2.651061 3.006183 3.483186 4.137201 5.186785
2025-05-11 2.080107 2.324101 2.624668 3.038230 3.624391 4.492935 6.077071
2025-05-18 1.968290 2.211736 2.515838 2.942224 3.563339 4.523012 6.411598
2025-05-25 1.907509 2.159288 2.479579 2.940095 3.636671 4.779922 7.317159
2025-06-01 1.847169 2.102418 2.431572 2.914002 3.665712 4.962833 8.180114
2025-06-08 1.794079 2.051860 2.388334 2.890153 3.693996 5.150531 9.227607
2025-06-15 1.764510 2.029999 2.381763 2.918010 3.808363 5.533169 11.381020
2025-06-22 1.696569 1.954048 2.296184 2.819990 3.695921 5.416399 11.514379
2025-06-29 1.661058 1.920077 2.267459 2.806702 3.729812 5.629423 13.573336
2025-07-06 1.620143 1.877178 2.223983 2.767260 3.712000 5.720175 15.313644
2025-07-13 1.601553 1.865029 2.225195 2.800804 3.837753 6.217473 23.331448
2025-07-20 1.598346 1.873649 2.256539 2.885260 4.075610 7.149448 119.525151
2025-07-27 1.572145 1.848971 2.237303 2.883790 4.140206 7.611832 NaN
2025-08-03 1.549118 1.827844 2.222234 2.888052 4.217794 8.179877 NaN
2025-08-10 1.508282 1.780239 2.165382 2.816505 4.120516 8.037132 NaN
2025-08-17 1.484799 1.756597 2.143904 2.805354 4.157150 8.469083 NaN
2025-08-24 1.460989 1.731742 2.119534 2.787440 4.176094 8.850905 NaN
2025-08-31 1.436676 1.705479 2.092026 2.762259 4.175104 9.151979 NaN
2025-09-07 1.426179 1.698639 2.093953 2.789749 4.303558 10.267352 NaN
2025-09-14 1.388797 1.652095 2.032860 2.699330 4.132282 9.538286 NaN
2025-09-21 1.371134 1.633771 2.015269 2.688055 4.157897 10.039884 NaN